01 大背景

[1] 众所周知,这很难估计,数量在500万~1万亿之间。最新的预测数字是870万。请见Camilo Mora,et al.,“How Many Species Are There on Earth and in the Ocean?” PLOS Biology 9(8)(Aug. 23,2011): e1001127。

[2] 尽管每个人都熟悉单位瓦特(W),但对于它的含义仍然感到很困惑。不幸的是,它通常被认为是一种能量单位,但实际上,它是每单位时间内使用能量或产生能量的速度单位。能量的单位是焦耳(J),1瓦特就是1焦耳/秒。由于1小时有3 600秒,一只100瓦特的灯泡每小时耗能36万焦耳。电费单通常是以千瓦时为单位计算上月消耗电能的。因此,一只100瓦特的灯泡点亮1个小时使用0.1千瓦时的能量。

[3] 代谢率的比例变化是由马克斯·克莱伯首先提出的,请见M. Kleiber “Body Size and Metabolism,”Hilgardia(1932); 6: 315–51。图中的数据源自F. G. Benedict Vital Energetics: A Study in Comparative Basal Metabolism. Washington,DC: Carnegie Institute of Washington,1938。

[4] H. J. Levine,“Rest Heart Rate and Life Expectancy,” Journal of the American College of Cardiology 30(4)(1997): 1104–6.

[5] L. M. A. Bettencourt,J. Lobo and D. Strumsky,“Invention in the City: Increasing Returns to Patenting as a Scaling Function of Metropolitan Size,” Research Policy 36(2007): 107–120.

[6] L. M. A.贝当古(L. M. A. Bettencourt)和G. B. 韦斯特(G. B. West)基于瑞士苏黎世联邦理工学院教授F.施魏策尔(F. Schweizer)提供的数据而得出。每个点都代表一系列规模相似的公司的平均值。囊括近3万家美国上市公司的更加详细的图请见第9章图9–1~图9–4。

[7] 正如我将在第3章中阐述的那样,人类遵守这一近似的一般性规律是最近的事情。在发达国家,人们的寿命在过去150年间增长了近两倍。现在,我们一生中的心跳次数达到了近30亿次。

[8] 有关城市和城市化详细数据的来源请见联合国的报告,如《世界城市化前景》(World Urbanization Prospects),https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2014–Highlights.pdf。

[9] 对几种诺贝尔奖而言也是如此。

[10] 一个采访中引用了史蒂芬·霍金的话,“Unified Theory Is Getting Closer,Hawking Predicts,”San Jose Mercury News,Jan. 23,2000; www.mercurycenter.com/resources/search。

[11] 有一些颇受欢迎的书籍专门阐述有关复杂性的新科学。其中包括:M. Mitchell,Complexity: A Guided Tour(New York: Oxford University Press,2008); M. M. Waldrop,Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos(New York: Simon & Schuster,1993); J. Gleick,Chaos: Making a New Science(New York: Viking Penguin,1987); S. A. Kauffman,At Home in the Universe: The Search for the Laws of Self-Organization and Complexity(Oxford,UK: Oxford University Press,1995); J. H. Miller,A Crude Look at the Whole: The Science of Complex Systems in Business, Life, and Society(New York: Basic Books,2016)。

[12] 那些熟悉幂律数学的人知道,3/4次幂规模法则意味着,严格地说,当体积增长一倍时,代谢率的增长倍数为23/4,即1.68,增长了68%,因此略低于所引用的75%的增长幅度。为便于阐述,我将在本书中举出类似的数学例子时忽略这一差别。

[13] 有几本很好的书籍总结了生物学中不同的异速生长率。其中包括:W. A. Calder,Size,Function and Life History(Cambridge,MA: Harvard University Press,1984); E. L. Charnov,Life History Invariants(Oxford,UK: Oxford University Press,1993); T. A. McMahon and J. T. Bonner,On Size and Life(New York: Scientific American Library,1983); R. H. Peters,The Ecological Implications of Body Size(Cambridge,UK: Cambridge University Press,1986); K. Schmidt-Nielsen,Why Is Animal Size So Important?(Cambridge,UK: Cambridge University Press,1984)。

[14] 这些观点最初来自G. B. West,J. H. Brown,and B. J. Enquist,“A General Model for the Origin of Allometric Scaling Laws in Biology,” Science 276(1997): 122–26。总结一般性理论及其应用的非数学评论请见G. B. West and J. H. Brown,“The Origin of Allometric Scaling Laws in Biology from Genomes to Ecosystems: Towards a Quantitative Unifying Theory of Biological Structure and Organization,” Journal of Experimental Biology 208(2005):1575–92; and G. B. West and J. H. Brown,“Life’s Universal Scaling Laws,”Physics Today 57(2004): 36–42。旨在对这一框架进行具体阐释的不同技术论文将在后文的适当位置进行引用。

[15] 详细阐述这些结果的重要论文是L. M. A. Bettencourt,et al.,“Growth,Innovation,Scaling,and the Pace of Life in Cities,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 104(2007): 7301–6。阐述具体主题的论文将在后文的适当位置进行引用。简短的概述详见L. M. A. Bettencourt and G. B. West,“A Unified Theory of Urban Living,” Nature 467(2010):912–13,and “Bigger Cities Do More with Less,” Scientific American(September 2011): 52–53。

[16] M. I. G. Daepp,et al.,“The Mortality of Companies,” Journal of the Royal Society Interface 12(2015):20150120.

02 万物的尺度:规模法则

[1] 该书书名通常被缩写为《关于两种新科学的对话》(Dialogues Concerning Two New Science)。经典的英文版是1914年亨利·克鲁(Henry Crew)和阿方索·德萨尔维奥(Alfonso de Salvio)的译本,最初是由麦克米伦出版社于1914年出版的,1954年由纽约多佛出版社重新出版发行。

[2] 引自爱因斯坦的完整表述值得重申,因为它强调了关于科学的一句重要格言:“纯粹用逻辑方法所得到的命题,在现实中是完全空洞的。伽利略看到了这一点,尤其是他向科学界孜孜不倦地传播这一点,使他成为现代物理学之父——事实上也成为整个现代科学之父。”引自爱因斯坦的“On the Method of Theoretical Physics,” in Essays in Science(New York: Dover,2009),12–21。

[3] J. Shuster and J. Siegel,Superman,Action Comics 1(1938).

[4] 对那些擅长数学的人来说,这是因为(101)3/2=31.6,(102)3/2=1 000。

[5] M. H. Lietzke,“Relation Between Weightlifting Totals and Body Weight,” Science 124(1956): 486.

[6] L. J. West,C. M. Pierce,and W. D. Thomas,“Lysergic Acid Diethylamide: Its Effects on a Male Asiatic Elephant,” Science 138(1962): 1100–1102.

[7] 儿童泰诺剂量指导可以在如下网址找到:www.tylenol.com/children-infants/safety/dosage-charts(accessed September 25,2016)。对婴儿而言,请见www.babycenter.com/0_acetaminophen-dosage-chart_11886.bc(accessed September 25,2016)。

[8] 例如,Alex Pentland,Social Physics: How Good Ideas Spread——The Lessons from a New Science(New York: Penguin Press,2014)。

[9] 网络上有许多现成的BMI计算器,你可以很容易获知自己的BMI,例如,美国国立卫生研究院的这一计算器: www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/educational/lose_wt/BMI/bmicalc.htm。

[10] 例如,T. Samaras,Human Body Size and the Laws of Scaling(New York: Nova Science Publishers,2007)。

[11] G. B. West,“The Importance of Quantitative Systemic Thinking in Medicine,” Lancet 379,no. 9825(2012): 1551–59.

[12] 一篇引人入胜的关于19世纪汽船发展的概述,包括伊桑巴德的重要角色,详见Stephen Fox,The Ocean Railway(New York: Harper-Collins,2004)。

[13] Barry Pickthall,A History of Sailing in 100 Objects(London: Bloomsburg Press,2016).

[14] 有关“瓦萨号”从诞生到灾难性的启航,再到奇迹般的复活的故事在邻近其沉没地斯德哥尔摩市中心一家专门建造的博物馆中进行了很好的展示。它被打扫干净并恢复如初,保存得很好。这是一家很好的博物馆,也是到斯德哥尔摩的游客必去的地方之一,已经成为瑞典最有名的旅游景点。

[15] 费曼在一套精美的丛书[R. Feynman,R. B. Leighton,and M. Sands,The Feynman Lectures on Physics(Boston: Addison-Wesley,1964)]中对纳维–斯托克斯方程进行了深入的技术探讨。

[16] Lord Rayleigh,“The Principle of Similitude,” Nature 95(1915): 66–68.

03 生命的简单性、一致性和复杂性

[1] John Horgan,The End of Science: Facing the Limits of Science in the Twilight of the Scientific Age(New York: Broadway Books,1996).

[2] Erwin Schröinger,What Is Life?(Cambridge,UK: Cambridge University Press,1944).

[3] 引自史蒂夫·乔布斯2005年6月12日在斯坦福大学的毕业典礼上的演讲。

[4] 更多的是指删节版:D’A. W. Thompson,On Growth and Form(Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,1961)。

[5] M. Kleiber,“Body Size and Metabolism,” Hilgardia 6(1932): 315–51.

[6] 除了此前曾引用过的参考外,还请见G. B. West,J. H. Brown,and W. H. Woodruff,“Allometric Scaling of Metabolism from Molecules and Mitochondria to Cells and Mammal,”Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 99(2002): 2473; V. M. Savage,et al.,“The Predominance of Quarter Power Scaling in Biology,” Functional Ecology 18(2004): 257–82。

[7] 朱利安·赫胥黎的经典作品,最早出版于1932年,最近再版:Julian Huxley,Problems of Relative Growth(New York Dover,1972)。J. B. S. 霍尔丹在1926年3月的《哈泼斯杂志》(Harpar’ s Magazine)上发表过一篇题为《论正确的规模》的论文,详见http://irl.cs.ucla.edu/papers/right-size.html。

[8] 请见上条参考文献。

[9] J. H. Brown,Macroecology(Chicago: University of Chicago Press,1995).

[10] S. Brenner,“Life’s Code Script,” Nature 482(2012): 461.

[11] 最近的两篇论文敦促要通过理论途径更好地整合生物学和生态学,详见P. A.Marquet,et al.,“On Theory in Ecology,” Bioscience 64(2014): 701; D. C. Krakauer,et al.,“The Challenges and Scope of Theoretical Biology,” Journal of Theoretical Biology 276(2011):269–76。

[12] 第一篇详细阐述这一方法的论文是:G. B. West,J. H. Brown,and B. J. Enquist,“A General Model for the Origin of Allometric Scaling Laws in Biology,” Science 276(1997):122。相对非技术性的概述请见:G. B. West and J. H. Brown,“The Origin of Allometric Scaling Laws in Biology from Genomes to Ecosystems: Towards a Quantitative Unifying Theory of Biological Structure and Organization,” Journal of Experimental Biology 208(2005):1575–92; G. B. West and J. H. Brown,“Life’s Universal Scaling Laws,” Physics Today 57(2004): 36–42; J. H. Brown,et al.,“Toward a Metabolic Theory of Ecology,”Ecology 85(2004): 1771–89。

[13] 生理学家将主动脉解构为几个子部分(升主动脉、主动脉弓、胸主动脉等)。

[14] G. B. West,J. H. Brown,and B. J. Enquist,“A General Model for the Structure and Allometry of Plant Vascular Systems,” Nature 400(1999): 664–67.

[15] 有关循环系统的生理学的传统技术性概述请见:C. G. Caro,et al.,The Mechanics of Circulation(Oxford,UK: Oxford University Press,1978); Y. C. Fung,Biodynamics:Circulation(New York: Springer-Verlag,1984)。

[16] 然而,存在一些微妙之处,树木的一些部分是朽木,不参与经过其枝杈流体流动的流体流动学过程,即便其在树木的生物力学中起着重要作用。这一理论表明,这并不能改变活跃网络的体积随树木总质量按线性比例变化的结果。

[17] B. B. Mandelbrot,The Fractal Geometry of Nature(San Francisco: W. H. Freeman,1982).

[18] 对理查森的尝试的绝佳总结,包括恰当的引用,请见:Anatol Rapaport,Lewis F. Richardson’s Mathematical Theory of War,University of Michigan Library。可在如下网址下载:https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/67679/10.1177_002200275700100301.pdf?sequence=2。

[19] L. F. Richardson,Statistics of Deadly Quarrels,ed. Q. Wright and C. C. Lienau(Pittsburgh:Boxwood Press,1960).

[20] A. Clauset,M. Young,and K. S. Cleditsch,“On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 51(1)(2007): 58–87.

[21] L. F. Richardson,in General Systems Yearbook 6(1961): 139.

[22] Benoit Mandelbrot,“How Long Is the Coast of Britain? Statistical Self-Similarity and Fractional Dimension,” Science 156(1967): 636–38.

[23] Rosario N. Mantegna and H. Eugene Stanley,An Introduction to Econophysics: Correlations and Complexity in Finance(Cambridge,UK: Cambridge University Press,1999).

[24] J. B. Bassingthwaighte,L. S. Liebovitch,and B. J. West,Fractal Physiology(New York:Oxford University Press,1994).

[25] Mandelbrot,The Fractal Geometry of Nature.

[26] 例如,Manfred Schroeder,Fractals, Chaos, Power Laws: Minutes from an Infinite Paradise(New York: W.H. Freeman,1991)。

04 生命的第四维:生长、衰老和死亡

[1] G. B. West,J. H. Brown,and B. J. Enquist,“The Fourth Dimension of Life: Fractal Geometry and Allometric Scaling of Organisms,” Science 284(1999): 1677–79.

[2] M.A.F. Gomes,“Fractal Geometry in Crumpled Paper Balls,” American Journal of Physics 55(1987): 649–50.

[3] G. B. West,W. H. Woodruff,and J. H. Brown,“Allometric Scaling of Metabolic Rate from Molecules and Mitochondria to Cells and Mammals,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 99(2002): 2473–78.

[4] G. B. West,J. H. Brown,and B. J. Enquist,“A General Model for Ontogenetic Growth,”Nature 413(2001): 628–31.

[5] G. B. West,J. H. Brown,and B. J. Enquist,“A General Quantitative Theory of Forest Structure and Dynamics,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 106(2009): 7040; B.J. Enquist,G. B. West,and J. H. Brown,“Extensions and Evaluations of a General Quantitative Theory of Forest Structure and Dynamics,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 106(2009): 7040.

[6] C. Hou,et al.,“Energetic Basis of Colonial Living in Social Insects,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 107(8)(2010): 3634–38.

[7] A. B. Herman,V. M. Savage,and G. B. West,“A Quantitative Theory of Solid Tumor Growth,Metabolic Rate and Vascularization,” PLoS ONE 6(2011): e22973.

[8] Van M. Savage,Alexander B. Herman,Geoffrey B. West,and Kevin Leu,“Using Fractal Geometry and Universal Growth Curves as Diagnostics for Comparing Tumor Vasculature and Metabolic Rate with Healthy Tissue and for Predicting Responses to Drug Therapies,Discrete Continuous,” Dynamical Systems Series B 18(4)(2013).

[9] G. B. West,J. H. Brown,and B. J. Enquist,“A General Model for the Structure and Allometry of Plant Vascular Systems,” Nature 400(1999): 664–67; B. J. Enquist,et al.,“Allometric Scaling of Production and Life-History Variation in Vascular Plants,” Nature 401(1999): 907–11.

[10] Max Jammer,Einstein and Religion(Princeton,NJ: Princeton University Press,1999).

[11] J. F. Gillooly,et al.,“Effects of Size and Temperature on Metabolic Rate,” Science 293(2001): 2248–51; J. F. Gillooly,et al.,“Effects of Size and Temperature on Developmental Time,” Nature 417(2002): 70–73.

[12] 选自英格玛·伯格曼1968年的电影《狼之时刻》的开场。

[13] Claudia Dreifus,“A Conversation with Nir Barzilai: It’s Not the Yogurt; Looking for Longevity Genes,” New York Times,February 24,2004.

[14] T. B. Kirkwood,“A Systematic Look at an Old Problem,” Nature 451(2008): 644–47;Geoffrey B. West and Aviv Bergman,“Toward a Systems Biology Framework for Understanding Aging and Health Span,” Journal of Gerontology 64(2009): 2.

[15] H. Bafitis and F. Sargent,“Human Physiological Adaptability Through the Life Sequence,” Journal of Gerontology 32(4)(1977): 210,402.

[16] H. J. Levine,“Rest Heart Rate and Life Expectancy,” Journal of American College of Cardiology 30(4)(Oct. 1997): 1104–6. See also M. Y. Azbel,“Universal Biological Scaling and Mortality,” Proceedings of the National Academy of science 91(1994): 12453–57.

[17] A. T. Atanasov,“The Linear Allometric Relationship Between Total Metabolic Energy per Life Span and Body Mass of Mammals,” Bulgarian Journal of Veterinary Medicine 9(3)(2006): 159–74.

[18] T. McMahon and J. T. Bonner,On Size and Life(New York: Scientific American Books——W. H. Freeman & Co.,1983).

[19] J. F. Gillooly,et al.,“Effects of Size and Temperature on Metabolic Rate,” Science 293(2001): 2248–51; J. F. Gillooly,et al.,“Effects of Size and Temperature on Developmental Time,” Nature 417(2002): 70–73.

[20] R. L. Walford,Maximum Life Span(New York: W. W. Norton,1983); R. L. Walford,The 120-Year Diet(New York: Simon & Schuster,1986).

05 从人类世到城市世:一个由城市主导的地球

[1] E. Glaeser,The Triumph of the City(New York: Penguin Books,2012).

[2] L.M.A. Bettencourt and G. B. West,“A Unified Theory of Urban Living,” Nature 467(2010): 21,912.

[3] 两本著作为此提供了详细的背景信息。G. Clark,A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World(Princeton,NJ: Princeton University Press,2008); I. Morris,The Measure of Civilization: How Social Development Decides the Fate of Nations(Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press,2013). 这两本著作都具有煽动性,而且某种程度上存在争议。

[4] P. Ehrlich,The Population Bomb(New York: Ballantine Books,1968).

[5] D. Meadows,et al.,The Limits to Growth(New York: Universe Books,1972).

[6] J. Simon,The Ultimate Resource(Princeton,NJ: Princeton University Press,1981).

[7] P. M. Romer,“The Origins of Endogenous Growth,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 8(1)(1994):3–22.

06 城市科学的序曲

[1] J. Moore,“Predators and Prey: A New Ecology of Competition,” Harvard Business Review 71(3)(1993): 75.

[2] 有关该项目结果的总结,请见D. Lane,et al.,Complexity Perspectives in Innovation and Social Change(Berlin: Springer-Verlag,2009)。

[3] Jane Jacobs,The Death and Life of Great American Cities(New York: Random House,1961).

[4] 《理性》杂志2001年6月期对比尔·施泰格瓦尔德(Bill Steigerwald)的采访。

[5] B. Barber,If Mayors Ruled the World: Dysfunctional Nations,Rising Cities(New Haven,CT: Yale University Press,2013).

[6] B. Bryson,Down Under(New York: Doubleday,2000).

[7] 例如,请见L. Mumford,The City in History: Its Origins,Its Transformations,and Its Prospects(New York: Harcourt,Brace & World,1961)。

07 走向城市科学

[1] C. Kuhnert,D. Helbing,and G. B. West,“Scaling Laws in Urban Supply Networks,”Physica A 363(1)2006: 96–103.

[2] 在所有围绕城市的讨论中,一个困扰着我们的重要问题是,城市的定义到底是什么。我们对此都有一种直观的理解,但为了寻求量化理解,我们需要更加精确。通常而言,我在这里提到的城市并不是政治或行政定义上的城市。例如,旧金山的人口只有85万,而紧邻的都市区的人口则为460万。从其动力学、增长和社会经济结构来说,很明显,后者才是我们所说的旧金山或其他城市。它通常包括郊区和其他社区,它们有着独特的名称,但在功能上属于大都市网络的一部分。这一点得到大多数城市居民、行政机构和政府的认可,人们推出了更大范围的类别以适应这一更符合现实的城市形态。例如,这些聚居地在美国被称作都市统计区,在日本被称作都市区,在欧洲则被称作大型城市区。然而,它们并没有统一的定义,因此在不同国家之间进行比较时需要保持谨慎。几乎所有用于绘制比例图表的数据都基于城市的实用型定义。

[3] L.M.A. Bettencourt,et al.,“Growth,Innovation,Scaling,and the Pace of Life in Cities,”Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 104(2007): 7301–6.

[4] L.M.A. Bettencourt,J. Lobo,and D. Strumsky,“Invention in the City: Increasing Returns to Patenting as a Scaling Function of Metropolitan Size,” Research Policy 36(2007): 107–20.

[5] 参见B. Wellman and S. D. Berkowitz,Social Structures: A Network Approach Sciences(Cambridge,UK: Cambridge University Press,1988); M. Granovetter,“The Strength of Weak Ties: A Network Theory Revisited,” Sociological Theory 1(1983): 201–33,in P. V.Marsden and N. Lin,eds.,Social Structure and Network Analysis(Thousand Oaks,CA: Sage,1982); Claude Fischer,To Dwell Among Friends: Personal Networks in Town and City(Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1982); R. Sampson,“Local Friendship Ties and Community Attachment in Mass Society: A Multilevel Systemic Model,” American Sociological Review(1988)。

[6] M. Batty and P. Longley,Fractal Cities: A Geometry of Form and Function(Cambridge,MA: Academic Press,1994); M. Batty,Cities and Complexity(Cambridge,MA: MIT Press,2005).

[7] M. Batty,The New Science of Cities(Cambridge,MA: MIT Press,2014).

[8] 参见A.-L. Barabási,Linked: The New Science of Networks(New York: Perseus Books Group,2002); M.E.J. Newman,Networks: An Introduction(Oxford,UK: Oxford University Press,2010)。

[9] Stanley Milgram,The Individual in a Social World: Essays and Experiments(London:Pinter & Martin,1997).

[10] D. J. Watts,Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age(New York: W. W. Norton,2004).

[11] S. H. Strogatz,et al.,“Theoretical Mechanics: Crowd Synchrony on the Millennium Bridge,” Nature 438(2005): 43–44.

[12] 这很有趣:S. H. Strogatz,The Joy of X: A Guided Tour of Mathematics,from One to Infinity(New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt,2013)。

[13] P. Zimbardo,The Lucifer Effect: Understanding How Good People Turn Evil(New York:Random House,2007).

[14] S. Milgram,“The Experience of Living in Cities,” Science 167(1970): 1461–68.

[15] R.I.M. Dunbar,How Many Friends Does One Person Need?: Dunbar’s Number and Other Evolutionary Quirks(London: Faber & Faber,2010).

[16] R.I.M. Dunbar and S. Shultz,“Evolution in the Social Brain,” Science 317(5843)(2007): 1344–47.

[17] G. K. Zipf,Human Behavior and the Principle of Least Effort(Boston: Addison-Wesley,1949).

[18] 将这些论点与第4章中谈到的潜藏于生物学1/4次幂规模法则中的生命4个维度的概念相结合,路易斯·贝当古表示,在城市现象中观察到的0.15其实是1/6的近似值。L.M.A.Bettencourt,“The Origins of Scaling in Cities,” Science 340(2013): 1438–41.

08 从流动性和生活节奏到社会联系、多样化、新陈代谢和增长

[1] 引自歌德和作曲家卡尔·弗里德里希·策尔特(Carl Friedrich Zelter)之间的通信集。A.D. Coleridge,trans.,Goethe’s Letters to Zelter(London: George Bell & Sons,1887).尽管在其所处的年代已十分著名,但策尔特时至今日仍被人铭记主要是因为他与歌德的关系。我很感激我的朋友、研究歌德的学者戴维·莱文(David Levine)让我注意到这一段引文。

[2] 尽管它最初出版于1914年,但现在又再版了。J. G. Bartholomew,An Atlas of Economic Geography(London: Forgotten Books,2015).

[3] C. Marchetti,“Anthropological Invariants in Travel Behavior,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 47(1)(1994): 88.

[4] G. B. West,“Big Data Needs a Big Theory to Go with It,” Scientific American 308(2013):14; originally published as “Wisdom in Numbers.”

[5] M. Schläpfer,et al.,“The Scaling of Human Interactions with City Size,” Journal of the Royal Society Interface 11(2014): 20130789.

[6] 此类排名的例子请见《经济学人》杂志,www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/08 /daily chart-14,以及《福布斯》杂志,www.forbes.com/sites/iese/2016/07/06/the-worlds-smartest cities/#7f9bee254899。

[7] L.M.A. Bettencourt,et al.,“Urban Scaling and Its Deviations: Revealing the Structure of Wealth,Innovation and Crime Across Cities,” PLoS ONE 5(11)2010: e13541.

[8] 圣何塞市早期受益于IBM首个美国西海岸研究机构于1956年落户于此。

[9] 北美产业分类体系链接如下:www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/。

[10] H. Youn,et al.,“Scaling and Universality in Urban Economic Diversification,” Journal of the Royal Society Interface 13(2016): 20150937.

[11] G. U. Yule,“A Mathematical Theory of Evolution,Based on the Conclusions of Dr. J.C. Willis,F.R.S.,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 213(402–10)(1925):21–87; H. A. Simon,“On a Class of Skew Distribution Functions,” Biometrika 42(3–4)(1955): 425–40. 偏好依附在当代的网络理论中十分流行,得益于A.-L. Barabási and R.Albert,“Emergence of Scaling in Random Networks,” Science 286(5439)(1999): 509–12。

[12] 数字0.4来自律师数量与城市规模比例关系的指数与图8–11和图8–12中所显示的齐普夫定律企业多样性的比例关系之间的相互作用。

[13] L. Mumford,The City in History(New York: Harcourt,Brace & World,1961).

[14] 从更具体的工程热力学意义上来说,A.沃尔曼(A. Wolman)曾就城市代谢做出估计,“The Metabolism of Cities,” Scientific American 213(3)(1965):179–90。最近的估计请见:C. Kennedy,S. Pincetl,and P. Bunje,“The Study of Urban Metabolism and Its Applications to Urban Planning and Design,” Environmental Pollution 159(2011): 1965–73。

09 迈向公司科学

[1] R. L. Axtell,“Zipf Distribution of U.S. Firm Sizes,” Science 293(5536)(2001):1818–20.

[2] 有关公司传统观念的概述,请见G. R. Carroll and M. T. Hannan,The Demography of Corporations and Industries(Princeton,NJ: Princeton University Press,2000); and R. H. Coase,The Firm,the Market,and the Law(Chicago: University of Chicago Press,1988)。

[3] 例如,请见J. H. Miller and S. E. Page,Complex Adaptive Systems: An Introduction to Computational Models of Social Life(Princeton,NJ: Princeton University Press,2007)。

[4] J. D. Farmer and D. Foley,“The Economy Needs Agent-Based Modeling,” Nature 460(2009): 685–86.

[5] N. N. Taleb,The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable(New York: Random House,2007).

[6] M.I.G. Daepp,et al.,“The Mortality of Companies,” Journal of the Royal Society Interface,12:20150120.

[7] E. L. Kaplan and P. Meier,“Nonparametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations,”Journal of American Statistical Association 53(1958): 457–81; R. Elandt-Johnson and N.Johnson,Survival Models and Data Analysis(New York: John Wiley & Sons,1999).

[8] R. Foster and S. Kaplan,Creative Destruction: Why Companies That Are Built to Last Underperform the Market——and How to Successfully Transform Them(New York: Doubleday,2001).

[9] 有关并购和收购以及如何在相关的框架下进行理解和讨论,请见E. Viegas,et al.,“The Dynamics of Mergers and Acquisitions: Ancestry as the Seminal Determinant,” Proceedings of the Royal Society A 470(2014): 20140370。

10 有关持续性的大一统理论的前景

[1] 首次出现在G. B. West,“Integrated Sustainability and the Underlying Threat of Urbanization,” in Global Sustainability: A Nobel Cause,ed. H. J. Schellnhuber(Cambridge,UK: Cambridge University Press,2010)。

[2] A. Johansen and D. Sornette,“Finite-Time Singularity in the Dynamics of the World Population,Economic and Financial Indices,” Physica A 294(3–4)(2001): 465–502.

[3] 在重大创新之间的时间段内,该情况也不会固定不变。然而,与发生在重大创新出现的转折点之间的剧烈、非连续的相变相比,这些改变都相对较小、较为平缓。

[4] 例如,可参见W. B. Arthur,The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves(New York: Free Press,2009); H. Youn,et al.,“Invention as a Combinatorial Process: Evidence from U.S. Patents,” Journal of the Royal Society Interface 12(2015): 20150272。

[5] R. Kurzweil,The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology(New York:Viking,2005).

[6] V. Vinge,“The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era,” Whole Earth Review(1993).

[7] 这引自伟大的数学家斯塔尼斯拉夫·乌拉姆在冯·诺依曼于1957年去世之后所致给他的悼词: “Tribute to John von Neumann,” Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society 5(3),part 2(1958): 64。

[8] C. McCarthy,The Road(New York: Alfred A. Knopf,2006).

后记

[1] 两本非技术性书籍概述了对于物质的基础构成以及大一统理论的有趣追求,这一理论是用来理解它们彼此之间的相互关系,还包括对宇宙的变迁和时空的起源等问题的讨论。S.Carroll,The Particle at the End of the Universe(New York: Dutton,2012); and L. Randall,Warped Passages(New York: Harper Perennial,2006).

[2] “Strange Bedfellows,” Science 245(1989): 700–703.

[3] A. Tucker,“Max Perutz,” Guardian,Feb. 7,2002; www.theguardian.com/news/2002/feb/07/guardianobituaries.obituaries

[4] 请见www.fastcodesign.com/3030529/infographic-of-the-day/hilarious-graphs-prove-that correlation-isnt-causation。

图片说明

图2–6:Public.Resource.Org/CC BY 2.0

图3–6:(mitochondrion): Blausen.com staff, “Blausen gallery 2014” from Wikiversity Journal of Medicine;(ant): Katja Schulz/CC BY 2.0;(ants’ nest): Natural History Museum: Hymenoptera Section/CCBY 2.0; (Dubai): Henrik Bach Nielsen/CC BY 2.0

图3–7:(circulatory system of the brain): Open Stax College/CC BY 4.0; (cell network): NICHD/CC BY2.0; (tree): Ales Kladnik/CC BY 2.0

图3–10:(Romanesco cauliflower): Jon Sullivan/PDPhoto.org; (dried-up riverbed): Courtesy of BernhardEdmaier/Science Source;(Grand Canyon): Michael Rehfeldt/CC BY 2.0

图4–1:(ant): Larry Jacobsen/CC BY 2.0;(shrew): Marie Hale/CC BY 2.0;(elephant): Brian Snelson/CCBY 2.0;(Paraceratherium): Dmitry Bogdanov/Wikimedia Commons;(blue whale): Amila Tennakoon/CC BY 2.0

图4–2:Courtesy of Alamy

图4–10:(tumor network): JACOPIN/BSIP/Alamy

图4–17:(aging woman): Courtesy of Image Source/Alamy;(marathon runner): Courtesy of Sportpoint /Alamy

图5–2:(long-term real growth in U.S. GDP): Courtesy of Catherine Mulbrandon/Visualizing Economics.com

图5–3:(Earth, on left): NASA

图6–1:(São Paulo): Francisco Anzola/Wikimedia Commons;(Sana’a): Rod Waddington/Wikimedia Commons;(Seattle): Tiffany Von Arnim/CC BY 2.0;(Melbourne): Francisco Anzola/CC BY 2.0

图6–2:(Los Angeles): Courtesy of Aerial Archives/Alamy;(New York subway map): CountZ/English Wikipedia/CC BY-SA 3.0

图6–3:(Masdar city center): Courtesy Laboratory for Visionary Architecture (LAVA);(Le Courbusier’s designs): © FLC/ARS, 2016

图7–7:(central place theory, Mexico): Courtesy of Tony Burton/Geo-Mexico

图7–8:(Paris): Courtesy of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy;(bacterial colony): Courtesy of Microbeworld user Tasha Sturm/Cabrillo College

图7–10:(flow of trucks to and from Texas): U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Office of Freight Management and Operations

图7–11:(social network, left): Martin Grandjean/CC BY-SA 3.0;(social network, right):Courtesy of Maxim Basinski/Alamy

图8–2:(Liverpool fast lane): Courtesy of PA Images/Alamy

图9–13:(GM): Carol M. Highsmith’s America/Library of Congress, Prints and Photographs Division; (“Going Out of Business”): timetrax23/CC BY 2.0;(Lehman Brothers): Courtesy of Yuriko Nakao /Reuters/Alamy;(TWA): Ted Quackenbush/Wikimedia Commons

章节错误,点此举报(免注册),举报后维护人员会在两分钟内校正章节内容,请耐心等待,并刷新页面。

您看此文用        秒

如若转载,请注明出处:《注释Comment01大背景-岚昕文学网》https://axcxa.com/child/141/4416.html

打赏
  • 打赏支付宝扫一扫
  • 打赏微信扫一扫